EISMENA’s correspondent in Iran - The military operations conducted by Israel against Iran beginning on February 28, 2026 departed in significant ways from the targeting logic of previous strikes. Rather than confining itself to nuclear facilities and missile infrastructure, Israel systematically attacked the coercive apparatus of the Iranian state police stations, border guard posts, and the commercial heartland of the Tehran Bazaar. This article argues that these strikes were not collateral errors but constituted a coherent three-dimensional strategy aimed at dismantling the regime’s capacity for internal suppression, fracturing its territorial sovereignty along ethno-national lines, and severing the economic networks that have historically sustained clerical authority. Drawing on Robert Kaplan’s framework of civilizational realism and his concept of geography as a determinant of political behavior, the analysis further contends that this strategy, however tactically sophisticated, misreads the deep structure of Iranian political culture and risks generating precisely the nationalist consolidation it seeks to prevent.
4th March 2026
CFRI Analysis