What happened to the “Shia Crescent” — and why is it increasingly discussed as an “Axis of Resistance” after October 7, 2023?
In this in-depth interview, Vali Nasr (Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs & Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University SAIS) alongside Lyna Ouandjeli, analyst at EISMENA, discuss Shiism in the 21st century and how regional geopolitics have shifted from sectarian framing (Shia/Sunni) toward new alliances, deterrence logics, and “resistance” narratives.
We cover:
• How the 2003 Iraq war accelerated a “Shia awakening” across the region
• The rise (and limits) of the “Shia Crescent” concept • Iran’s regional strategy and its pressure points • Gaza after Oct 7 and the reframing into an “Axis of Resistance”
• Iran–Saudi détente (“cold peace”) and what it changes in the Gulf and Yemen • Syria’s shifting balance and what it means for Hezbollah, Iraq, and regional security
Guest: Vali Nasr
Topic: Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen, Gaza — and the future of regional order
CHAPTERS
00:00 Why this conversation now (post–Oct 7)
02:04 Who is Vali Nasr?
03:03 Iraq 2003 and the “Shia awakening”
06:31 The “Shia Crescent” + backlash/ISIS
10:26 Gaza war → “Axis of Resistance”
12:23 Iran–Saudi rapprochement
15:13 “Cold peace” and de-escalation
18:14 How Gaza reshapes regional priorities
23:20 Syria, HTS & Ahmad al-Sharaa: implications
52:29 Security dilemmas: armies vs militias
57:19 US disengagement and what it means next
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