European Institute for Studies on
the Middle East and North Africa

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Will the Middle East be Falling Apart by 2025? TV5MONDEinfo

Author

Adel Bakawan

Adel Bakawan

Rebroadcast of TV5MONDEinfo from 23/12/2025

Chapters

0:00 Intro — Adel Bakawan & “The Breakdown of the Middle East”

0:34 Oct 7th as a historic rupture

1:22 2025: “winners & losers” in the region

2:06 The balance of power after Oct 7 2:52 Abraham Accords questioned; Palestinian issue returns

4:59 Recognition of Palestine & France’s initiative

5:47 Who governs after? Crisis of legitimacy & succession

6:59 Israel’s military response & the lack of political horizon

9:10 Iran: not the “mastermind” of Oct 7? Survival logic

10:41 Egypt’s decline; shifting regional centers of gravity

14:22 Lebanon: reconstruction, Hezbollah, and conditions

15:25 2026 outlook: Turkey/PKK, Tel Aviv–Tehran, Trump factor

16:45 Europe’s role—spectator or actor?

17:31 “Decomposition” of the Middle East—final takeaways

18:35 Outro & book mention

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