European Institute for Studies on
the Middle East and North Africa

Will the Middle East be Falling Apart by 2025? TV5MONDEinfo

Author

Adel Bakawan

Adel Bakawan

Rebroadcast of TV5MONDEinfo from 23/12/2025

Chapters

0:00 Intro — Adel Bakawan & “The Breakdown of the Middle East”

0:34 Oct 7th as a historic rupture

1:22 2025: “winners & losers” in the region

2:06 The balance of power after Oct 7 2:52 Abraham Accords questioned; Palestinian issue returns

4:59 Recognition of Palestine & France’s initiative

5:47 Who governs after? Crisis of legitimacy & succession

6:59 Israel’s military response & the lack of political horizon

9:10 Iran: not the “mastermind” of Oct 7? Survival logic

10:41 Egypt’s decline; shifting regional centers of gravity

14:22 Lebanon: reconstruction, Hezbollah, and conditions

15:25 2026 outlook: Turkey/PKK, Tel Aviv–Tehran, Trump factor

16:45 Europe’s role—spectator or actor?

17:31 “Decomposition” of the Middle East—final takeaways

18:35 Outro & book mention

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