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Beyond Numbers: Why the West Fails to Comprehend Middle Eastern “Identity Realism”?

Participants in the 27th Joint GCC-EU Ministerial Council pose for a group photo in Muscat on October 10, 2023. ©AFP This is Beirut

Author

Saad Salloum

Saad Salloum

The Materialistic Reductionism Trap

In the corridors of Mustansiriyah University in Baghdad, as I dive with my doctoral researchers into dissecting the mechanisms of Western understanding of our region, we constantly collide with what we term the “Materialistic Reductionism Trap”. This cognitive hurdle prevents the realization of the emotional essence of conflicts in the Middle East. Within Western and European think tanks, our crises are often imprisoned within hollow technical equations and dry figures, where the scene is reduced to oil barrel flows, missile ranges, or geopolitical control over international waterways.

Our academic discussions in Iraq consistently attempt to bridge this deep gap in understanding. Despite their strategic weight, these quantitative calculations remain unable to decode the “Great Puzzle” that baffles the modern Western mind: Why do states in our region choose to exhaust their resources and risk suffocating economic isolation for years, not for commercial or territorial gains, but merely to support an ideological ally linked neither by the language of numbers nor gas interests?. We are not discussing traditional pragmatic politics here, but rather a Robust Political Romanticism that prioritizes symbolism over materiality.

The conviction we strive to instill in researchers is that the state in the Middle East is not moved by the “map” as much as it is inhabited by the “mirror”. Here, the hypotheses of “Material Rationality”—which limit state behavior to wealth accumulation or hard power maximization—collapse. In these shifting sands, “Constructivism” emerges as an indispensable analytical lens; it teaches us that the map of friends and enemies is not drawn by the size of arsenals, but by the extent of the threat posed to the “legitimacy” of the existing regime. A state in the Middle East may find its national security in an alliance with an economically poorer or militarily weaker party, simply because they share an ideological vision or sect. This ally transforms from a mere external partner into an “Extension of Identity” and a shield protecting the regime’s legitimacy against both internal and external challenges.

The Syrian Laboratory: Post-Conflict Identity Re-engineering

Within this analytical context, the Syrian experience stands out as one of the most intriguing models of how “identity” intertwines with the stakes of sovereign survival. The radical transformations engineered by Ahmed Al-Sharaa—which began as a local laboratory in Idlib and have today settled in the People’s Palace in Damascus—represent the clearest embodiment of this concept. In the contemporary political lexicon, Al-Sharaa’s journey is no longer a mere military rebellion or a transient power struggle; it has become what we call in our discussions in Baghdad “A Methodological Lesson in Post-Conflict National Identity Re-engineering”. This political actor transitioned with Machiavellian prowess from the shores of global jihad to the position of a Transitional Statesman, transforming identity from an ideological burden feared by the world into a Strategic Identity used to extract international recognition.

Al-Sharaa’s success in gaining the support of the Trump administration and beginning to dismantle the legacy of international sanctions proves a fundamental truth: identity in Middle Eastern conflicts is not a fixed essence, but a flexible narrative reshaped to ensure survival and lead sovereign transformation. Syria, with its dramatic turning points, was not merely a competitive arena; it was the “Cornerstone” whose fall in December 2024 caused a seismic shift in the architecture of regional identities. The forced abandonment of Damascus was not just a geographical loss for the “Axis of Resistance”; it represented a Final Fracture in the Founding Narrative that formed the backbone of Iranian influence for decades.

Today, in 2026, we witness a scene that transcends territorial struggle to a struggle over “new meaning”. The Syrian geography has shifted from a vessel for conflicting ideological identities to a laboratory for building a New Syrian Nationalism attempting to absorb contradictions. 

The Identitarian Doctrine: Tehran and the ‘Unification of Fronts

This Identitarian Obsession is the actual driver for other regional players. The current confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv remains incomprehensible if confined to traditional military frameworks.  For the Iranian decision-maker, supporting the ‘Axis of Resistance’ is not merely a defensive strategy or a quest for regional expansion; it is an organic constituent of the regime’s revolutionary identity established since 1979. Within this logic, any direct strike against sovereign symbols or spiritual leadership is not perceived as a mere military loss, but as a ‘shattering of the mirror’ through which the regime views its own legitimacy. Consequently, the ‘Unification of Fronts’ (Wahdat al-Sahat) transcends being a tactical maneuver, evolving into an ‘Identitarian Doctrine’. Fighting on these multiple fronts represents an existential struggle to preserve the ‘definition of self’-a price the decision-maker views as far more tolerable than the risk of ‘Identitarian Suicide’, which could uproot the regime’s very foundations before its core constituency

Turkey: The Struggle Between Vision and Realpolitik

Conversely, Turkey embodies the tragic struggle between “Imagined Identity” and “Harsh Reality”. Since the “Arab Spring,” Ankara sought to revive a rising regional identity under “Neo-Ottomanism”. However, the sharp shift toward “Realpolitik” and reconciliation with former rivals is a manifestation of “Systemic Pressures”. The Turkish leadership found itself forced by pressing economic requirements to curb trans-border identitarian ambitions in favor of “National Survival”. This Turkish fluctuation provides a profound lesson: identity, despite its immense moral energy, remains vulnerable to crashing against the solid wall of material reality.

The Saudi Model: Reinventing the National Mirror

While some struggle to preserve old narratives, Riyadh is undergoing a major adventure to reinvent itself. The contemporary Saudi model is the most fascinating laboratory for “Identity Re-engineering”. Saudi Arabia is not merely conducting a tactical review of its foreign policy; it is fundamentally reshaping its national mirror. Moving away from “Sectarian Competition” as a pillar of legitimacy, it is transitioning toward a new identity as the “Leading State for Regional Development and Prosperity”. This deep shift, anchored in Vision 2030, has prepared the ground for unprecedented diplomatic flexibility, such as the openings toward Tehran and Beijing. For the European analyst, the lesson is that the Saudi national interest has been entirely reproduced; the new identity prioritizes stability and economic growth over the “Zero-Sum” ideological competition of past decades.

Iraq: The Bridge State and Intersectional Identities

In the heart of this turbulent landscape, Iraq emerges as the most complex model of Intersectional Identities. Iraqi foreign policy and the internal debate over “Neutrality” are not merely about economic stability, but about defining the Iraqi self in a polarized environment. In our discussions at Mustansiriyah University, we conclude that national interest here involves protecting the regime’s legitimacy amidst cross-border identitarian pulls. Today, Iraq undertakes the ambitious mission of reclaiming Baghdad’s historical legacy by constructing a new strategic identity: The Bridge State or The Regional Facilitator. This vision aims to transform “pluralism”—often viewed by the West as a threat—into a lever for state power, making Iraqi identity stability the key to regional stability.

What we witness today from Gaza and Lebanon to the Red Sea is a struggle for “The Ownership of Meaning”. Failing to support a major identitarian cause—like the Palestinian cause—is seen not just as a political loss, but as a direct undermining of a regime’s legitimacy. The Middle Eastern decision-maker weighs the “stamina of their mental image” before their base and allies. This explains why the region seems resistant to traditional diplomacy; while the Western negotiator brings a “bag of material incentives,” the local negotiator is haunted by an existential question: “How will I look in the mirror of my people and the memory of history?”. It is a confrontation between the language of numbers and the language of symbols, and in the Middle East, symbols always prevail.

The core lesson for researchers and decision-makers on the other side of the Mediterranean is that stability will not be achieved through technical trade deals or “slicing the cake” alone. The conflict transcends utilitarian calculations to ask: Who has the right to write the historical narrative?. Unless there is a conviction that “moral existence” is respected, “Identity Realism” will remain the fuel for wars. Ignoring these symbolic dimensions in favor of dry material solutions is what keeps the region resistant to stability.

Conclusion: Dignity as a Strategic Actor

The truth emerging from our academic debates at Mustansiriyah University is that identity and dignity are the beating heart of politics that moves armies and draws maps. We invite our colleagues on the other side of the Mediterranean to stop using a dry materialistic ruler to analyze our affairs. We call on you to adopt an identitarian approach that sees beyond the narrowness of numbers, realizing that our region does not fight for material survival alone, but for its being and the right to write its own historical narrative. In the Middle East, the path to peace will only pass through the recognition that Dignity is a Strategic Actor no less significant than armies and economies.

Selected Bibliography

1-Wendt, A. (1999). Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  

This foundational text provides the theoretical scaffolding for the article’s critique of “Materialistic Reductionism”. It anchors the argument that national interests are not exogenous givens but are socially constructed through “identity” and “shared ideas”.

2-Katzenstein, P. J. (Ed.). (1996). The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics. New York: Columbia University Press. 

This reference supports the analysis of “Robust Political Romanticism” , arguing that state behavior and regional alliances in the Middle East are driven by systemic pressures and the preservation of “regime legitimacy” rather than mere material power maximization. 

3-Government of Saudi Arabia. (2016). Saudi Vision 2030. [Official Policy Document]. Available at: https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/

This official document serves as the primary evidence for the “Identity Re-engineering” model , detailing Riyadh’s strategic pivot toward becoming a “Leading State for Regional Development and Prosperity”.

Contextual Appendix: Empirical Grounding of Analytical Metaphors

The following examples illustrate how “Identity Realism” operates in current Middle Eastern geopolitics:

1-The “Mirror” vs. The “Map”: While a traditional “Map” might depict Iraq as a site of fragmentation , the “Mirror” reflects a deliberate shift in Baghdad’s self-perception. This is empirically evidenced by Iraq’s “Bridge State” mission and the hosting of regional summits aimed at de-escalation and facilitation.

2-“Identitarian Suicide”: This concept explains why the Iranian decision-maker maintains the “Unification of Fronts” (Wahdat al-Sahat) despite extreme economic isolation. From a Constructivist lens, abandoning this “revolutionary identity” is perceived as a greater existential threat to the regime than material or financial loss.

3-“Identity Re-engineering”: The Saudi model under Vision 2030 represents a fundamental reproduction of national interest. By prioritizing “Regional Prosperity” over “Sectarian Competition,” Riyadh has gained the diplomatic flexibility to engage with former rivals such as Tehran and Beijing.

4-“Dignity as a Strategic Actor”: In the Middle East, failing to champion a central identitarian cause (e.g., the Palestinian cause) is viewed as a direct undermining of a regime’s domestic and regional legitimacy. The “stamina of the mental image” is thus a primary variable in the decision-making process.

5-The “Cornerstone” Shift: The collapse of the traditional narrative in Damascus in December 2024 serves as a case study for “Post-Conflict National Identity Re-engineering”. The transition of actors like Ahmed Al-Sharaa from ideological combatants to “Transitional Statesmen” proves that identity is a flexible strategic tool used to extract international recognition.

To cite this article: “Beyond Numbers: Why the West Fails to Comprehend Middle Eastern “Identity Realism”?” by Saad Salloum, EISMENA, 31/03/2026, [https://eismena.com/analysis/beyond-numbers-why-the-west-fails-to-comprehend-middle-eastern-identity-realism/].

The information and opinion contained in the articles on the EISMENA website are solely those of the author(s) and do not engage the responsibility of the institute.

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