After the fall of the Assad dictatorship, Syria faces a power vacuum marked by sectarian violence and governance challenges, especially in Alawite and Druze regions. President Ahmad Al-Sharaa is pursuing a democratic transition through reforms and dialogue with various factions but struggles with internal conflicts and increasing foreign interference, notably from Israel. The transitional government’s limited inclusivity raises doubts about its true commitment to democratization. Despite these challenges, international support from countries like Qatar and France encourages progress toward stability and reconstruction. To succeed, Al-Sharaa must strengthen inclusive governance and implement economic and social reforms to prevent the country’s fragmentation.

The military conflict between Israel and Iran, known as the Twelve-Day War, marked a major strategic turning point by shattering the illusion of an Iran protected by its deterrence doctrine. This war exposed Tehran’s strategic isolation, weakened its network of regional proxies, and called into question its traditional diplomacy, symbolized by the metaphor of the carpet. The failure to mobilize its allies highlighted the regime’s growing solitude in the face of a new regional architecture dominated by Israel and backed by the United States. This conflict is part of a broader context of proxy empire, where major powers avoid direct intervention. Iran now faces the urgent need to redefine its strategy to remain relevant in a rapidly shifting Middle East.