European Institute for Studies on
the Middle East and North Africa

ANALYSIS

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Operation Epic Fury: conflict regionalization, energy crisis and geopolitical reconfiguration

Edgar de Barbeyrac

CATEGORIES

The ‘Twelve-Day War’: Initial repercussions on the Gulf

August 29, 2025

Chloé Berger, Didier Leroy

The Possible Impact of France’s Recognition of the State of Palestine: A Geopolitical and Legal Analysis

August 21, 2025

Lyna Ouandjeli

The announced recognition of the State of Palestine by France in September 2025 marks a major diplomatic turning point, at the intersection of international law and geopolitical balances. It responds to an unprecedented collective initiative and could revive the debate on the two-state solution, weakened by the war in Gaza and the expansion of Israeli settlements. Legally, Palestine partially meets the criteria of statehood but remains weakened by its internal divisions. International reactions are divided: categorical rejection by Israel and the United States, but enthusiastic support from the Palestinian side as well as several European and Arab countries. Between symbolic significance and strategic uncertainty, this French decision could reshape diplomatic dynamics without guaranteeing concrete progress on the ground.

The New Syrian Government: Balancing Stabilisation and Democratic Transition

August 8, 2025

Manoug Antaby

After the fall of the Assad dictatorship, Syria faces a power vacuum marked by sectarian violence and governance challenges, especially in Alawite and Druze regions. President Ahmad Al-Sharaa is pursuing a democratic transition through reforms and dialogue with various factions but struggles with internal conflicts and increasing foreign interference, notably from Israel. The transitional government’s limited inclusivity raises doubts about its true commitment to democratization. Despite these challenges, international support from countries like Qatar and France encourages progress toward stability and reconstruction. To succeed, Al-Sharaa must strengthen inclusive governance and implement economic and social reforms to prevent the country’s fragmentation.

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